In the analysis of tailings dam failures, the estimation of the released volume is key to modeling the propagation of the tailings. There are two main approaches: geometric methods, which consider the geometry of the deposit and the post-liquefaction angle of repose (2°-5° according to CDA, 2021), and statistical methods, which use correlations with historical data to estimate the released volume from the total stored. While the geometric method is more representative by including multiple factors, the statistical method is faster and more useful when there is little information about the deposit. A comparative analysis in two case studies showed that the results vary according to the characteristics of the deposit, since in some cases the statistical method yielded larger volumes and in others the geometric method was more conservative. There is no universally more accurate method, so the choice depends on the context and the information available.
